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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-07-29 01:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 566 WTNT34 KNHC 282352 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...DISTURBANCE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 58.7W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance center has re-formed near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 58.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high... 90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning, and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Update Statement
2020-07-28 23:15:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 510 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT64 KNHC 282115 CCA TCUAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 510 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 Corrected time in date-time product header At 500 PM AST, 2100 UTC, the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano, and from Cabo Engano westward to the northern border with Haiti. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-28 23:15:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 28 the center of Nine was located near 14.4, -55.9 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-28 23:08:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2020 21:08:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2020 21:24:55 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-28 22:40:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282040 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 The overall structure of the disturbance has not changed much since this morning. New clusters of convection have developed over the northern portion of the elongated circulation and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been unable to find a well-defined center. The aircraft measured some SFMR winds of 30-35 kt well to the northwest of the trough axis, and these data along with the earlier ASCAT form the basis of the 35 kt initial intensity. The lastest dynamical model guidance still suggests that the system will consolidate over the next 12-18 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the Leeward Islands on Wednesday. The particulars of the track forecast remain uncertain since the system lacks a well-defined center. The initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 285/20 kt. The overall track foreast reasoning remains the same, with the disturbance expected to move west-northwestward over the next several days to the south of a subtropical ridge that extends westward over the western Atlantic. The 12Z track guidance is in agreement on the overall scenario, but some differences are noted due primarily to the system's strength and vertical depth. Models such as the UKMET and HWRF, which depict a stronger cyclone, are along the northern side of the guidance envelope, while the weaker solutions remain more equatorward. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies a little south of the various consensus aids. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico within the next 24-36 hours. The global model guidance suggests that the system will consolidate overnight and should acquire a better defined center. As this occurs, the disturbance is likely to gradually strengthen within the low vertical wind shear environment that it is situated in. Between 36 and 72 hours, the strength of the system will largely be dependent on the amount of land it encounters. If the system moves over the Greater Antilles it is likely to be weaker than indicated in the official forecast, but a path north or south of Hispaniola could result in a stronger system. Later in the period, some southwesterly shear could also temper further strengthening. The GFS and ECMWF models generally weaken the system in the longer range due to these negative factors. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, but an usually high degree of uncertainty regarding the future track and intensity of the system remains. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both track and intensity are likely. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic beginning Wednesday and spreading westward through Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.4N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 15.4N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 18.2N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 19.7N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 20.9N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 24.7N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 27.0N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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