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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-07-28 16:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281458 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight and this morning in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Recent visible satellite imagery and ASCAT data show that the system's circulation is quite elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Observations from NOAA buoy 41040 and ASCAT suggest that the system is already producing winds of 30-35 kt, and the systems's initial intensity has been set to 35 kt. Dry air located just to the north of the system has been hindering development over the past couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development over the next couple of days. Therefore, the system is likely to become a tropical storm before it reaches the Leeward Islands and advisories are being initiated in order to issue Tropical Storm Warnings for a portion of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system early this afternoon, and should provide additional information on the intensity and structure of the low pressure area. It cannot be stressed enough that since the system is still in the formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts. A subtropical ridge that extends westward from the central Atlantic is expected to be the dominant steering mechanism over the next several days, and the flow around this ridge should steer the low pressure area generally west-northwestward. However, the details in the track forecast could change depending on exactly where within elongated circulation the center forms. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico within the next 24-48 hours. After that time, a general west- northwestward heading should continue but as mentioned before, uncertainty exists as to how close the system tracks to Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. It should be noted that a stronger cyclone is likely to favor a more northern track, while a weaker system is likely to remain more equatorward. Users should remember that the long-term average NHC track forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are 140 and 175 n mi, respectively. Given the current structure of the system, only gradual strengthening is predicted during the next day or two, however the system is expected to become a tropical storm when it is near the Leeward Islands on Wednesday. After 48 hours, possible land interaction with the Greater Antilles, and increasing south to southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough could temper further strengthening. The global models generally weaken the system due to these negative factors and the NHC forecast calls for little change in strength at the longer range. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both track and intensity are likely. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 14.8N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1200Z 16.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 30/0000Z 17.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.8N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 20.1N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 21.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.1N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 26.8N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-07-28 16:57:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 281457 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 18(29) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 16(29) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 10(36) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 8(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 3(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) 2(33) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 9(44) X(44) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 2(48) X(48) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 1(41) X(41) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 31(31) 29(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 44(44) 22(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 45(45) 12(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 3( 3) 63(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABA 34 X 3( 3) 62(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SABA 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SABA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 4( 4) 62(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 7( 7) 59(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X 22(22) 48(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X 28(28) 43(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ANTIGUA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X 35(35) 19(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GUADELOUPE 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MARTINIQUE 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Seven-E Best Track Information (.shp)

2020-07-21 16:41:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 14:41:15 GMT

Tags: information track shp cyclone

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Seven-E Best Track Information (.kmz)

2020-07-21 16:41:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 14:41:15 GMT

Tags: information track cyclone posttropical

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Seven-E Forecast Information (.shp)

2020-07-21 16:41:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 14:41:15 GMT

Tags: information forecast shp cyclone

 

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