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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-11 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110833 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 The system has lacked significant organized deep convection for some time now, and therefore it has degenerated into a post-tropical low pressure system. The maximum sustained winds are estimated, perhaps generously, at 30 kt over the Atlantic waters well to the southeast of the center. Continued weakening is likely, and the cyclone should dissipate over eastern Canada by late Sunday. The low is moving just east of due north or around 010/15 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move between a mid-level ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and a trough near the Great Lakes until it loses its identity. This is the last advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 42.4N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-11 10:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 110833 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay (AT1/AL062020)
2020-07-11 10:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN NEW YORK... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 the center of Fay was located near 42.4, -73.9 with movement N at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-11 10:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 ...FAY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN NEW YORK... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.4N 73.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF ALBANY NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay was located near latitude 42.4 North, longitude 73.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today, tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will continue to move across portions of eastern New York this morning, then across northwestern New England later today and over southeastern Canada tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day so, and the post-tropical cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The post-tropical cyclone is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern New York into portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-11 10:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110831 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 74.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.4N 73.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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