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Hurricane Chris Public Advisory Number 22
2018-07-12 04:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 800 WTNT33 KNHC 120246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.6N 63.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 63.0 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Chris will pass over or near extreme southeastern Newfoundland Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Chris is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Thursday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Even though Chris is moving away from the United States, swells generated by the storm will affect portions of the coast from North Carolina northward to New England during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the southern coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland overnight and into Thursday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Chris Forecast Advisory Number 22
2018-07-12 04:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 715 WTNT23 KNHC 120245 TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC THU JUL 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHRIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 63.0W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 130SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 250SE 250SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 63.0W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 64.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 42.6N 59.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 46.9N 52.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.2N 44.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 53.1N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 59.6N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 62.0N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 63.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Chris Graphics
2018-07-11 22:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jul 2018 20:49:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jul 2018 21:26:39 GMT
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Hurricane Chris Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-07-11 22:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 212 WTNT43 KNHC 112047 TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 The eye of Chris has become a little less distinct and more cloud filled during the past few hours, but the overall cloud pattern remains quite impressive in satellite imagery. The respective wind radii were adjusted outward based on a 1454 UTC ASCAT-A overpass, which included one 65-kt surface wind vector in the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 80 kt based on a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates of T4.5/77 from both TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of T5.2/95 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 050/22 kt. Little change was made to the previous advisory track. Chris is now embedded within deep southwesterly flow ahead of a broad trough that is digging southeastward along the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The global models are in excellent agreement that the hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward for the next 72 hours, passing over or near southeastern Newfoundland in 24-36 hours as a strong extratropical cyclone. In contrast to several previous model runs, the latest NHC guidance shows very little cross-track spread or speed differences, and is tightly packed about the previous advisory track. The new forecast track closely follows the previous forecast and the consensus track models HCCA, TVCN, and FSSE. During next 6 hours or so, Chris will be passing over a ocean thermal ridge consisting of SSTs of more than 28 deg C, which is associated with the Gulf Stream. As a result, little change in strength is expected during that time. However, by 24 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs colder than 12 deg C and encountering southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt, a detrimental combination that will induce rapid weakening and also result in transition to an extratropical cyclone. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the various intensity model forecasts to account for stronger shear and colder water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 37.8N 65.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 40.6N 61.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 44.9N 56.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0600Z 48.8N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1800Z 51.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1800Z 58.4N 22.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1800Z 63.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-07-11 22:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 150 FONT13 KNHC 112047 PWSAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 4( 4) 72(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 23(23) 11(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 4 47(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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