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Hurricane Chris Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-07-11 10:39:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 156 WTNT43 KNHC 110839 TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 Chris continues to have a very distinct eye, but the surrounding convection is not as strong as a few hours ago. Dvorak T-numbers are either steady or lower, so the initial intensity is kept at 90 kt in this advisory. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a little during the next 12 to 18 hours while is moving over the Gulf Stream or warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will move over increasingly cold waters, and it should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics as it passes south of Newfoundland. Satellite fixes indicate that Chris has increased its forward speed, and is now moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 19 kt. The hurricane is already embedded withing the fast flow ahead of a large mid-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the hurricane northeastward over the open Atlantic with additional increase in forward speed. Models are in remarkably good agreement and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. This increases considerably the confidence in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 35.3N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 37.2N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 40.9N 62.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 45.0N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 48.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 55.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 63.0N 15.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-11 10:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Jul 11 the center of Chris was located near 35.3, -69.9 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Chris Public Advisory Number 19
2018-07-11 10:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 941 WTNT33 KNHC 110839 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 69.9W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 1175 MI...1885 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 69.9 West. Chris has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion with additional increase in forward speed is anticipated during the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a little today or tonight. After that time, the hurricane is forecast to weaken and become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or earlier. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-07-11 10:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 949 FONT13 KNHC 110839 PWSAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 45(45) 5(50) X(50) X(50) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 85(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 45(45) 28(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 6( 6) 82(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 42(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Chris Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-07-11 10:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 879 WTNT23 KNHC 110838 TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE CHRIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 69.9W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 69.9W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 70.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 37.2N 67.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 40.9N 62.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 45.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 48.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 55.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 63.0N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 69.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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