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Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2018-07-10 05:00:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jul 2018 03:00:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jul 2018 03:26:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-07-10 04:58:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100258 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Chris has changed little in strength during the past several hours. The aircraft has reported maximum flight-level of 63 kt at 700 mb to the southwest of the center, along with a somewhat-uncertain maximum SFMR surface wind estimate of 61 kt. The latest reported central pressure is 995 mb. Based on these, the initial intensity will be held at a possibly generous 60 kt. The aircraft also reported that a partial eyewall of 20-30 n mi diameter has formed, but has not yet been able to close off. Chris has moved little since the last advisory, as it remains trapped in a break in the subtropical ridge. A large mid-latitude trough is forming over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States, and as this system develops southward it should break down the ridge and steer Chris to the northeast after about 12 h, with an increasing forward speed expected thereafter as the tropical cyclone enters the mid-latitude westerlies. Chris should pass east of the Canadian Maritimes in about 72 h, then pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland between 72-96 h. The track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, although some spread remains in the forecast forward speed. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models. The sea surface temperature at NOAA buoy 41002, located 45 n mi southwest of the center of Chris, has dropped to near 25C, and it is possible that the temperatures are colder under the center. This ocean cooling, due to upwelling caused by the slow motion of the storm, has likely slowed the intensification of Chris despite an otherwise favorable environment and storm structure. Significant intensification now appears unlikely until the cyclone actually starts moving. Based on this and the forecast track, the new intensity forecast will delay Chris' intensification into a hurricane until the 18-24 h point. After that, Chris should strengthen until it moves north of the Gulf Stream and starts to merge with a frontal system. Extratropical transition is expected to be complete by 72 h, with the extratropical low gradually decaying as it moves across the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance except during the first 12 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 32.3N 74.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 32.6N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 33.5N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 37.7N 66.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 44.0N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0000Z 52.0N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-10 04:58:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS REMAINS STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 the center of Chris was located near 32.3, -74.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 14
2018-07-10 04:58:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100258 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 ...CHRIS REMAINS STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 74.3W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 74.3 West. Chris has remained nearly stationary the past several hours, and little motion is expected tonight. A northeastward motion should begin on Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. However, Chris is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-07-10 04:58:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 100258 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 4(31) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 26(43) X(43) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 1(33) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) X(25) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 7(60) X(60) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 3(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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