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Hurricane Chris Forecast Discussion Number 20

2018-07-11 16:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 576 WTNT43 KNHC 111459 TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 The IR signature of Chris has fluctuated substantially this morning. The eye became obscured by clouds shortly after sunrise, and an SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC indicated that the vortex had become tilted, with the mid-level eye displaced to the east of the low-level center of circulation. Since that time, however, the eye has once again become more distinct in visible and IR imagery. Dvorak estimates from all agencies had decreased markedly at 1200 UTC but given the improvement of the cloud pattern since then, the initial intensity has been lowered only slightly, to 85 kt. For the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will be approaching and crossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and no further weakening is expected. In fact it is possible that Chris could even briefly re-intensify, as shown by some of the intensity guidance, although this is not explicitly shown in the forecast. Once the hurricane crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream in about 24 hours, all of the dynamical models indicate that Chris will quickly acquire extratropical characteristics and rapidly weaken while its wind field becomes more spread out. Given the lower initial intensity, the new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one for the first 36 hours, but very similar thereafter, and is close to a consensus of the global and hurricane dynamical models. Almost no change has been made to the track forecast. Chris should continue accelerating toward the northeast ahead of an approaching mid-level trough over the next couple of days. By 96 hours, all of the global models forecast that Chris will begin to interact with another extratropical low, which should cause Chris to slow down, before the two lows eventually merge by day 5. The global models are still in very good agreement on the track of Chris, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast and confidence remains high in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 36.4N 67.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 38.7N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 42.7N 59.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 46.9N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1200Z 50.3N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z 56.8N 26.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1200Z 62.0N 16.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Summary for Hurricane Chris (AT3/AL032018)

2018-07-11 16:58:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Jul 11 the center of Chris was located near 36.4, -67.8 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Chris Public Advisory Number 20

2018-07-11 16:58:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 544 WTNT33 KNHC 111458 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.4N 67.8W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 67.8 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to remain on this general heading with an increase in forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track the center of Chris will pass near southeastern Newfoundland on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the day today, with some weakening forecast on Thursday. Chris will likely also become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Chris Forecast Advisory Number 20

2018-07-11 16:57:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 099 WTNT23 KNHC 111457 TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE CHRIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 67.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 67.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 69.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.7N 64.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 42.7N 59.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 46.9N 53.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.3N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 56.8N 26.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 62.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 67.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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