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Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)

2018-07-10 16:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CHRIS FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 the center of Chris was located near 33.1, -73.1 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 16

2018-07-10 16:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 512 WTNT33 KNHC 101452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 ...CHRIS FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 73.1W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today when it moves over warmer waters, and some additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday night. Chris is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2018-07-10 16:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 511 FONT13 KNHC 101452 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 8(48) X(48) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 1(44) X(44) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 34(34) 23(57) X(57) X(57) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) X(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 16

2018-07-10 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 509 WTNT23 KNHC 101450 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 73.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 110SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 73.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 73.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.9N 71.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.6N 69.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 42.0N 60.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 48.1N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 52.0N 31.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 54.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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