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Summary for Hurricane Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-10 22:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS FINALLY BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 the center of Chris was located near 33.7, -72.4 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Chris Public Advisory Number 17
2018-07-10 22:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 900 WTNT33 KNHC 102053 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 ...CHRIS FINALLY BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 72.4W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 72.4 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued northeastward motion accompanied by a steady increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast tonight and Wednesday. Chris is forecast to begin weakening by Thursday, and become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-07-10 22:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 715 FONT13 KNHC 102053 PWSAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 63(63) X(63) X(63) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 57(60) X(60) X(60) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 21(44) X(44) X(44) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 60(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2018-07-10 16:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jul 2018 14:55:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jul 2018 15:27:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-07-10 16:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 034 WTNT43 KNHC 101452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 During the past 6 hours, Chris has developed a well-defined eye in both satellite and radar imagery at times, with a diameter that has varied in size from 30 nmi to the present 20 nmi. The overall convective pattern has also become more symmetrical with well-established outflow present in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 kt from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT, and Chris certainly has the satellite appearance of being a hurricane. However, the intensity is being maintained at 60 kt for this advisory due to significant cold upwelling that has occurred beneath the cyclone when Chris was moving slowly during the previous 48 hours. The colder waters have likely stabilized the boundary layer, which has inhibited stronger winds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The cold upwelling is supported by sea-surface temperature (SST) data from nearby NOAA Buoy 41002, which has shown 6 deg F of cooling during the past 48 hours, and is currently sitting at 76F. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chris this afternoon to provide a better intensity estimate. Recent satellite and radar fixes indicate that Chris is finally moving northeastward at a faster forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is now 050/08 kt. The narrow subtropical ridge to the southeast of the cyclone is getting pushed northward by the remnants of Beryl, which has helped to finally nudge Chris toward the northeast. A further increase in forward speed is expected as a strong deep-layer trough digs southeastward along the U.S. east coast, accelerating the cyclone at forward speeds of 25-30 kt by 48 hours and beyond. Chris is forecast to pass well southeast of Nova Scotia in a couple of days, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland in about 60 hours. The NHC track guidance remains in good agreement on the evolving steering flow regime, but there continues to be some pronounced speed differences. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN. My best estimate, based on the data from Buoy 41002, is that significant upwelling likely occurred within the 30-kt wind radii while Chris was nearly stationary. Assuming that that is the case, then Chris will be moving over warmer waters shortly, which should allow for an increase in convection to occur and also for winds aloft to better mix downward to the surface. The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain modest at 10-15 kt for the next 24 hours, so gradual intensification is expected during that time. By 48 hours, Chris will have crossed over the north wall of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder than 20 deg C, which will combine with strong southwesterly wind shear, and cause Chris to rapidly transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast follows the FSSE intensity model through 36 hours, and then shows more significant weakening after that, similar to the SHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 33.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 35.6N 69.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 38.4N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 42.0N 60.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 48.1N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 52.0N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z 54.0N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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