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Summary for Hurricane Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-11 22:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS SKEDADDLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Jul 11 the center of Chris was located near 37.8, -65.7 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Chris Public Advisory Number 21
2018-07-11 22:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 734 WTNT33 KNHC 112046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Chris Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 ...CHRIS SKEDADDLING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 65.7W ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. Chris is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane is expected to remain on this general heading with an increase in forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track the center of Chris will pass over or near southeastern Newfoundland Thursday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this evening. Steady weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday, and Chris will likely also become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters). These rains may cause flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Chris Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-07-11 22:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 735 WTNT23 KNHC 112046 TCMAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE CHRIS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 65.7W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 110SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 65.7W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 40.6N 61.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 44.9N 56.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 48.8N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 51.9N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 58.4N 22.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 63.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Chris Graphics
2018-07-11 17:04:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Jul 2018 15:04:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Jul 2018 15:28:15 GMT
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Hurricane Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-07-11 17:01:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 228 FONT13 KNHC 111501 PWSAT3 HURRICANE CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC WED JUL 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 12(12) 52(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 92(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 58(58) 6(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 2( 2) 59(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 63(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SABLE ISLAND 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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