je.st
news
Tag: chris
Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-07-10 04:57:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100257 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC TUE JUL 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 74.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 74.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 74.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.6N 73.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.5N 72.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.1N 70.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.7N 66.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 44.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 49.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 52.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
chris
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2018-07-09 23:05:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jul 2018 21:05:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jul 2018 21:26:40 GMT
Tags: graphics
chris
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-07-09 22:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092052 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 Satellite, Doppler radar, and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data this afternoon indicate that inner-core region of Chris has improved in organization, and that the cyclone has strengthened some. A peak 850-mb flight-level of 73 kt was measured in the southwestern quadrant along with slightly rain-contaminated SFMR surface winds of 53-59 kt. The central pressure has also decreased to 997-996 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance fixes thus far today indicate that Chris has essentially remained nearly stationary for the past 9 hours. Steering should remain weak for the next 24 hours or so due to the cyclone being trapped in a large break in the subtropical ridge, thus little motion is expected. However, by 36 hours and beyond, a deepening mid-latitude trough along the U.S. Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts is forecast to gradually lift out Chris to the northeast, with more significant northeastward acceleration occurring by 72 hours and beyond. Chris is expected to move across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5 as a powerful extratropical low, possibly passing over southeastern Newfoundland around the 96-hour time period. The NHC model guidance continues to show fairly significant along-track or speed differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close to the consensus track models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. A band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45 percent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning to take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new 15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central convective cloud mass during the past couple of hours. The well-defined inner-core wind field, in conjunction with the with SSTs near 28 deg C and a low vertical wind shear regime, should act to maintain inner-core convective development. The result should be gradual strengthening over the next day or, with Chris becoming a hurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning and reaching a peak intensity of 80 kt by 36 hours. Gradual weakening should commence by 48 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler water and southwesterly wind shear begins to increase to near 20 kt. By 72 hours and beyond, Chris will be over SSTs less than 20 deg C and within stronger shear environment ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone before the system approaches Newfoundland in about 96 hours. The extratropical low is forecast to merge with a cold front in 96-120 hours, which should enhance the extratropical transition process. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of previous two advisories, and similar to the intensity model FSSE, which is sightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 32.2N 74.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 32.8N 73.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 34.0N 71.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 36.1N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 42.2N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 48.3N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 52.0N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
chris
storm
Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-07-09 22:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 092052 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 3(33) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) X(43) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 1(32) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34) X(34) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 26(62) X(62) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-09 22:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS STRENGTHENS WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 the center of Chris was located near 32.2, -74.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
chris
storm
tropical
Sites : [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] next »