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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-07-08 10:58:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080858 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating the cyclone early this morning, and found flight-level winds of 45 kt at 925 mb and believable SFMR surface winds of around 34 kt in the southeast quadrant. On this basis, the system has been designated as Tropical Storm Chris, the 3rd named storm of the 2018 Atlantic season. Although the winds associated with the tropical storm have increased a little, the overall organization of Chris has not changed much over the past few hours. The low-level center is still exposed to the north of a broken band of deep convection and the cyclone lacks an inner-core. Chris is located over very warm SSTs and will remain so for the next several days. While the broad nature of the cyclone's circulation and some moderate shear will likely limit the intensification rate over the next day or so, all of the intensity guidance indicates that Chris will become a hurricane within about 72-h. By day 4, the intensity forecast is more uncertain, and depends strongly on the timing of Chris crossing the Gulf Stream, since the cyclone is expected to continue to intensify as long as it remains over warm waters. Once extratropical transition begins, weakening should occur as the wind field broadens. The new intensity forecast is close to HCCA and IVCN through day 3, and slightly lower beyond that, closer to the previous forecast. The track guidance has once again made a large shift with the latest forecast cycle. While Chris is generally expected to continue to meander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next couple of days before accelerating to the northeast ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the northwest, the timing of this acceleration is highly uncertain. Nearly all of the dynamical models have now shifted to the south and west of their previous forecasts throughout most of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, and shows a faster motion than most of the models. Given the large run-to-run inconsistency of the guidance over the past 24 hours, I would prefer to wait to make a more significant change to the forecast until a more clear pattern emerges. The Air Force reconnaissance plane also measured winds to gale-force about 20 miles off the coast of North Carolina. These winds are associated with the tight pressure gradient between Chris and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. See products issued by the National Weather Service forecast offices for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 33.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 33.0N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 32.8N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 32.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 32.7N 74.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 35.2N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 49.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-08 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE IT MEANDERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 8 the center of Chris was located near 33.0, -75.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 7
2018-07-08 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... ...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE IT MEANDERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 75.5W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Chris is forecast to meander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next several days. An acceleration toward the northeast is expected to begin on Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Chris is expected to become a hurricane by mid-week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance data is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states into early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Winds to gale force not directly associated with the depression are expected along the North Carolina coast and over Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-07-08 10:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 080853 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 37(45) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 33(51) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 16(33) 1(34) X(34) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 9(26) 1(27) X(27) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-07-08 10:51:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080851 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 75.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 75.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 75.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.8N 75.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.6N 75.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.7N 74.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.2N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 41.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 49.0N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 75.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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