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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 13
2018-07-09 22:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092052 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 ...CHRIS STRENGTHENS WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 74.4W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft to be near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 74.4 West. Chris has remained nearly stationary the past several hours, and little motion is expected during the next day or so. A northeastward motion should begin by late Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-07-09 22:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092052 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 74.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 74.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.8N 73.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.0N 71.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.1N 69.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 42.2N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 48.3N 50.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 52.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 74.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2018-07-09 16:58:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jul 2018 14:58:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jul 2018 14:58:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-07-09 16:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Chris this morning has found little change in the overall structure of the cyclone. The peak 8000-ft wind measured was 60 kt to the south of the center along with a 51-kt SFMR surface wind. The minimum pressure has also remained steady at 999 mb during the entire mission which is still ongoing. Although an eye-like feature has briefly appeared in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Morehead City and in satellite imagery as well, the convection surrounding that feature has been mostly shallow and ragged. Based on these data, the intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory. Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance fixes the past several hours and satellite fixes indicate that Chris has moved little. Steering currents are forecast to remain weak for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in continued slow movement. By 36 hours, however, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward out of Canada and into the northeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states, which should help to eject the cyclone northeastward. By 48 hours and beyond, the shortwave trough will help to amplify a deep-layer trough near the U.S. east coast, causing Chris to accelerate northeastward toward the Atlantic Canada region. The NHC model guidance continues to show little cross-track differences, but fairly significant along-track or speed differences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close to the consensus track models. A narrow band of dry mid-level air has wrapped all the way around and into the inner-core region, which has caused some erosion of the associated convection, along with some upwelling. However, the reconnaissance wind data indicated that Chris has a relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 15 nmi to the south and about 25 nmi to the north. This well-defined inner-core wind field, coupled with warm water and low vertical shear conditions, should enable the cyclone to mix out the dry air later today and tonight, which will allow for strengthening to begin. The intensification process should be steady at a near-normal rate for the next 36 hours or so, followed by gradual weakening in a few days as the waters beneath Chris begin to cool and the wind shear increases from the southwest. By 72 hours and beyond, Chris will be over much colder water (SSTs less than 20 deg C) and within a high shear environment of 30 kt or more, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone as the system approaches Newfoundland. The extratropical low is forecast to interact or merge with a strong cold front by 96 hours when the cyclone is near Newfoundland, which will enhance the extratropical transition process. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows Chris reaching hurricane strength by Tuesday. Chris could reach a peak intensity of 80 kt between the 36 and 48 hour time periods before weakening begins shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 32.2N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 32.3N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 32.4N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 33.3N 73.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 34.8N 70.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 40.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 47.0N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 51.1N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-09 16:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS MOVING LITTLE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 the center of Chris was located near 32.2, -74.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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