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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2018-07-09 10:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 090842 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 15(40) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 2(36) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 5(47) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 62(62) 1(63) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)

2018-07-09 10:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CHRIS MEANDERING WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 9 the center of Chris was located near 32.4, -74.6 with movement S at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 11

2018-07-09 10:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090842 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 ...CHRIS MEANDERING WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 74.6W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 74.6 West. Chris is drifting toward the south near 1 mph (2 km/h). The cyclone is expected to remain nearly stationary during the next day or so. A northeastward motion is forecast to begin late Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a hurricane late today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 11

2018-07-09 10:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090842 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0900 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 74.6W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 80SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 74.6W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.4N 74.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.5N 74.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.2N 72.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 39.0N 66.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 45.5N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.5N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 74.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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