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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 12
2018-07-09 16:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 ...CHRIS MOVING LITTLE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 74.5W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 74.5 West. Chris has been nearly stationary the past several hours, and little motion is expected during the next day or so. A northeastward motion is forecast to begin late Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. However, strengthening is expected to begin by tonight and continue for the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 41002 located just southwest of the center reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-07-09 16:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 091455 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 12(39) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) 6(55) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 4(47) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 2(39) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 1(48) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 54(65) 1(66) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 1(28) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-07-09 16:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091454 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 1500 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 74.5W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 80SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 74.5W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.3N 74.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.4N 74.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.3N 73.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.8N 70.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 40.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 47.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 51.1N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 74.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2018-07-09 10:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jul 2018 08:44:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jul 2018 09:26:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-07-09 10:43:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090843 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018 After the expansion of deep convection during the evening it appears that some drier air has been entrained into the circulation which has caused a general warming of the cloud tops and some erosion of the deep convection overnight. However, the banding remains well organized and the overall structure of the cyclone has not changed appreciably. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system has found that the minimum pressure has dropped to 999 mb, but the flight-level and SFMR winds still support an initial intensity of 50 kt. Recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Chris is drifting southward. Steering currents are expected to remain quite weak during the next 36 hours as Chris is situated between a couple of mid-level highs and a mid- to upper-level trough to its northeast. By late Tuesday, a deep-layer trough moving across the Great Lakes region should begin to lift Chris out toward the northeast. The cyclone is predicted to accelerate northeastward during the remainder of the forecast period as it gets caught in strong southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. The track models are in good agreement on this general scenario but there are some differences in how fast Chris accelerates over the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly northwestward to be in better agreement with the latest guidance, and it remains near the model consensus to account for the forward speed differences among the various track models. The cyclone should be able to mix out the dry air that it entrained while it is located over warm water and in light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions. This should allow strengthening during the next couple of days, but there could be some upwelling beneath the slow moving cyclone which could temper the rate of intensification. The new NHC track forecast shows a slightly slower rate of deepening during the next 24 to 36 h, but still forecasts Chris to become a hurricane later today or tonight, and reach about the same peak intensity as shown in the previous advisory. The hurricane should become extratropical by 96 h, and the global models indicate that steady weakening will occur after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 32.4N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 32.4N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 32.5N 74.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 33.0N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 34.2N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 39.0N 66.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 45.5N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 49.5N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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