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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-07-09 04:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090244 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 Chris is on a strengthening trend. Deep convection has been expanding over the center and recent microwave images show an improved structure with tightly curved bands, especially on the north and east sides of the circulation. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Chris and so far they have found a minimum pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 57 kt, which would support a 50-kt intensity. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, but this is a little lower than the latest Dvorak estimates. Chris has not moved much today as it remains caught in very weak steering currents between two mid-level highs and a mid- to upper-level trough to its northeast. Since this pattern is not expected to change much during the next day or so, Chris is likely to continue to drift around during that time period. On Tuesday, however, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach the storm and that should finally cause Chris to pull away to the northeast. A very fast northeastward motion is forecast toward the end of the period when the cyclone becomes embedded in strong mid-latitude flow. The NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous one and lies near the various consensus aids. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days as Chris remains over the warm Gulf Stream waters and in a moderate wind shear environment. The global models suggest that Chris could also benefit from baroclinic enhancements ahead of the approaching trough. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and ICON models and brings Chris to hurricane strength on Monday with additional strengthening into Tuesday. Steady weakening should begin shortly after 72 hours, and extratropical transition should be complete by 96 hours when Chris crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream and is over very chilly 10 degree C waters. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one during the next few days to be in better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 32.5N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 32.4N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 32.3N 74.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 32.3N 74.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 33.5N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 37.5N 68.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 43.6N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z 49.5N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-07-09 04:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 090244 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 11(45) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 5(27) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) X(23) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 14(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 9(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-09 04:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 the center of Chris was located near 32.5, -74.5 with movement ESE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 10
2018-07-09 04:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090243 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 ...CHRIS STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 74.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 74.5 West. Chris is drifting toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). The cyclone has barely moved today, and no significant motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and additional strengthening is expected into Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-07-09 04:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090243 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 74.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 74.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.4N 74.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.3N 74.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.3N 74.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.5N 73.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 68.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 43.6N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 49.5N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 74.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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