je.st
news
Tag: chris
Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2018-07-08 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 20:34:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 20:34:07 GMT
Tags: graphics
chris
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-07-08 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082032 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern continues to become better organized, and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. This was confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane which reported flight-level winds of 51 kt on the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt in this advisory. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast continues to call for Chris to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. This is in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the HCCA model consensus which strengthen Chris to a hurricane in a couple of days. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13 degree C Canadian waters, and this should encourage extratropical transition. The steering currents have collapsed, and the cyclone has barely moved all day. These currents are foreast to remain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the eastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris northeastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the track guidance envelope and follows closely the corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 32.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 32.5N 74.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 32.3N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 33.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 36.5N 69.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 43.5N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 50.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
chris
storm
Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-07-08 22:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 082031 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 11(38) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 1( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 13(38) 1(39) X(39) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 15(25) 9(34) X(34) X(34) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 14(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Chris (AT3/AL032018)
2018-07-08 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHRIS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 the center of Chris was located near 32.7, -74.6 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
chris
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Chris Public Advisory Number 9
2018-07-08 22:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 ...CHRIS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 74.6W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 74.6 West. Chris has barely moved since yesterday, and no significant motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days. Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Chris is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday and additional strengthening thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states into early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
chris
storm
Sites : [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] next »