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Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)

2018-10-28 03:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OSCAR STRENGTHENS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 27 the center of Oscar was located near 25.7, -51.4 with movement WSW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 5

2018-10-28 03:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280236 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 ...OSCAR STRENGTHENS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 51.4W ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 51.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the west and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. After that, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the northeast Monday night or Tuesday. Satellite data indicate that Oscar has become a tropical storm and that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days, and Oscar is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2018-10-28 03:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 280236 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 5

2018-10-28 03:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.4W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 90SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.4W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.2N 54.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.1N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.8N 58.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.2N 58.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 41.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 48.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 51.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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