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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-10-30 03:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300240 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 58.3W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 150SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 58.3W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 58.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 57.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.5N 55.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.3N 52.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 40.1N 47.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 49.1N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 56.2N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 62.5N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 58.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-29 21:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Oct 2018 20:35:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Oct 2018 21:22:13 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-10-29 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 292032 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 The overall cloud pattern of Oscar is somewhat asymmetrical, and convective banding is limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. However, recent visible and microwave imagery indicate that tight eyewall of the hurricane is still very well defined, despite the 20 kt or more of westerly shear analyzed in SHIPS and UW-CIMSS diagnostics. It appears that the shear is not having much of an affect on Oscar's inner-core, and in fact the small eye of the hurricane has become better defined over the past 6 hours. Recent objective and subjective intensity estimates support an intensity of 75-80 kt, and given the small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of Oscar, it seems more appropriate to round up, yielding an estimated intensity of 80 kt. All of the dynamical intensity guidance calls for additional intensification in the short term. Persistent lightning inside the hurricane's RMW during the past several hours also supports the notion of additional strengthening, as this signal has been associated with intensifying hurricanes in the past. By 24 h and beyond, Oscar will likely level off in intensity and then begin to weaken while it moves over much cooler SSTs and begins extratropical transition. Although this process will likely result in a rapid expansion of Oscar's tropical-storm-force wind field, it should also cause the maximum winds associated with the cyclone to steadily decrease through the end of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and generally follows IVCN through the forecast period. Oscar's eye has wobbled during the past several hours, but the hurricane appears to have already begun its expected turn toward the north. The hurricane is essentially on-track, and no major changes were required to the NHC track forecast. A large mid-latitude trough to the west will likely cause Oscar to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward beginning by late Tuesday, and then rapidly move across the northern central Atlantic in that direction. The global models are in reasonably good agreement on the speed and heading of Oscar through day 5, which is somewhat unusual for a recurving cyclone. The new official track forecast is based on a blend of the simple and corrected multi-model consensus aids, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. Although Oscar is not expected to directly affect any land areas, large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 27.8N 58.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 29.9N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 37.3N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 46.7N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 54.0N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z 60.0N 12.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-10-29 21:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 292032 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-29 21:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR TURNS NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 29 the center of Oscar was located near 26.5, -58.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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