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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-28 21:59:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Oct 2018 20:59:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Oct 2018 21:22:08 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-10-28 21:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282057 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 Visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that Oscar's convective pattern has continued to improve overall today, with a small eye having developed and been briefly evident between 1700-1800Z. Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt (TAFB and SAB) to T4.4/75 kt (UW-CIMSS ADT). The initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, which is just below the UW-CIMSS SATCON consensus estimate of 68 kt. Oscar is moving westward or 270/14 kt. The compact hurricane is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 36 hours or so, resulting in a westward motion overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest on Monday, with a slow motion toward the north expected by early Tuesday. By late Tuesday and continuing into Friday, Oscar is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer trough that currently lies just east of the U.S. east coast. This large synoptic-scale feature is expected to keep Oscar away from the United States, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. The only fly-in-the-ointment concerning the track forecast occurs on day 5 when a strong shortwave trough is forecast to dig southward down the west side of Oscar, possibly capturing the small cyclone over the north Atlantic and forcing it southward instead of allowing the small hurricane to recurve deeper into the high-latitude westerlies. All of the global and regional models are now indicating this interaction, with the only difference being whether Oscar remains a separate tropical system or merges with the shortwave trough. For now, the new official forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory and shows Oscar remaining a separate entity, but slowing down considerably as an extratropical cyclone on days 4 and 5, which is similar to that depicted by the consensus models HCCA and TVCN. Oscar is forecast to remain within an environment of mid- to upper-level temperatures that are colder than average by 2-3 deg C due to the cyclone still being embedded within the original parent larger-scale upper-level low/trough. The combination of the below- average environmental temperatures overlying relatively warm SSTs of 26.5 deg C will result in strong instability, which will aid the generation of deep convection, especially overnight. Add in Oscar's small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi, and conditions appear to be conducive for continued strengthening. The shear directly over the inner-core region is fairly low as noted by anticyclonic cirrus outflow now apparent in visible and water vapor imagery, a condition that also favors continued strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. The HWRF, HMON, and Navy COAMPS-TC models bring Oscar to major hurricane strength by 48 hours, which isn't out of the realm of possibilities based on the small RMW and expected low vertical wind shear. However, the official intensity forecast remains on the conservative side due to expected occasional intrusions of very dry mid-level air, which could briefly interrupt the intensification process. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is expected to induce a weakening trend, which will be enhanced by Oscar moving over sub-23 deg C SSTs shortly thereafter. The cold SSTs are expected to aid the transition to a strong extratropical cyclone. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, except to push forward the timing of peak intensity to 48 hours, and it is a little below the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models due to the aforementioned dry air issues. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 25.7N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 26.1N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.2N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 30.7N 57.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 38.0N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 45.0N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z 45.0N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-28 21:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 28 the center of Oscar was located near 25.7, -55.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 8
2018-10-28 21:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282056 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 ...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 55.5W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 55.5 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by early Monday, with a northwestward motion forecast on Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-10-28 21:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 282056 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.5W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 90SE 120SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.5W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.1N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.9N 58.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.2N 58.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 38.0N 50.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 45.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 45.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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