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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)

2018-10-29 09:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER... ...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 29 the center of Oscar was located near 25.7, -57.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 10

2018-10-29 09:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 ...OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER AND LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER... ...NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 57.8W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 57.8 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north tonight. On Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2018-10-29 09:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 290832 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 10

2018-10-29 09:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290831 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 57.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 90SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 57.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 57.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.1N 58.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N 58.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 41.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 46.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 48.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 57.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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