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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-30 03:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Oct 2018 02:44:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Oct 2018 03:22:17 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-10-30 03:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300242 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 The satellite presentation of Oscar continued to improved after the release of the previous advisory, with the small eye becoming a little more distinct around 0000 UTC, but it has again become cloud filled within the past hour or so. Recent microwave imagery continues to depict a tiny eye with a solid ring of deep convection surrounding it, but there is little outer banding over the southwestern portion of the circulation likely due to shear and dry air. Objective satellite intensity estimates which may be having trouble discerning the small eye are around 80 kt, while subjective T-numbers range from T5.0 from SAB to T5.5 from TAFB. As a result, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt for this advisory. Although the NHC intensity forecast does not explicitly show additional strengthening, Oscar has another 12 hours or so over SSTs of 26-26.5 deg C in which some slight intensification could occur. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters along the forecast track should cause the hurricane to weaken gradually as extratropical transition begins. Oscar is forecast to complete extratropical transition in about 48 hours, and remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for much of the forecast period. The global models indicate that Oscar's wind field will quickly expand during its transition to a post-tropical cyclone, and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast. The hurricane has been moving slightly east of due north or 010/8 kt. Oscar is forecast to begin to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving over the western Atlantic on Tuesday. The hurricane should be well embedded within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough by Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the cyclone is expected to move rapidly northeastward across the north-central and northeastern Atlantic later this week. There has been little change to the guidance envelope, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. The official forecast again lies near the various consensus aids and is near the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance. Although Oscar is not expected to directly affect any land areas, large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.4N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 28.8N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 31.5N 55.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 35.3N 52.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 40.1N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 49.1N 36.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z 56.2N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0000Z 62.5N 9.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-10-30 03:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 300241 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-30 03:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 29 the center of Oscar was located near 27.4, -58.3 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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at1al162018
Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 13
2018-10-30 03:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 ...OSCAR STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 58.3W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 58.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible tonight and early Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Oscar is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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