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Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-10-27 22:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272032 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 Oscar is still located beneath an upper-level low, however it its convective structure is now more reminiscent of a tropical cyclone. Deep convection is primarily occuring in a small burst just south of the center of Oscar, however this convective activity appears to be displaced by light northerly shear associated with the upper-low. Earlier AMSU sounding data indicated that the cyclone has developed a weak but vertically deep warm core which also indicates that Oscar is nearly a tropical cyclone, if it isn't one already. Oscar is moving quickly westward away from the upper-low, and will likely become a tropical storm later tonight if its current structural trends continue. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, based primarily on the latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB. The intensity guidance has bounced back, and the most of the intensity guidance is higher than it was six hours ago. While little change was made to the NHC intensity forecast, it now lies very near the intensity consensus at all forecast hours. Gradual intensification is still expected and Oscar is forecast to approach hurricane strength by Monday. Slight additional intensification is possible through the middle of next week, until extratropical transition occurs by 120 h. Oscar moved very quickly westward this afternoon, but a more representative motion estimate is 265/15 kt. The latest runs of the typically reliable global models are in better agreement than they were this morning. Oscar is forecast to move west-southwestward or westward for the next day or two on the south side of a mid-level ridge to the north. The cyclone is then expected to recurve and accelerate northeastward ahead of a substantial mid-latitude trough moving across the western and central Atlantic by the middle of next week. The official track forecast has been adjusted westward to bring it closer to the latest track consensus, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast. By day 5, the official forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory, but with a slightly slower forward speed for Oscar. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 26.9N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 26.1N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 28/1800Z 25.7N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 25.6N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 26.4N 59.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-10-27 22:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 272032 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Subtropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-27 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 27 the center of Oscar was located near 26.9, -50.7 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 4
2018-10-27 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 272032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 ...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 50.7W ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 50.7 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is anticipated overnight, followed by a turn back toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the northeast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-10-27 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 272032 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 50.7W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 50.7W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.1N 53.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.7N 55.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.6N 57.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.4N 59.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 50.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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