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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 12
2018-10-29 21:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 292031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 ...OSCAR TURNS NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 58.5W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the small eye of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 58.5 West. Oscar is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-10-29 21:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 292031 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 58.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 90SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 58.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.8N 58.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.9N 57.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 37.3N 50.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.7N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 54.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 60.0N 12.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 58.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-29 15:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Oct 2018 14:37:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Oct 2018 15:22:14 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-10-29 15:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 291434 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-10-29 15:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 291434 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 Oscar's convective cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous advisory, with a small, cloud-filled eye now apparent in visible satellite imagery and also in a recent SSMI/S microwave pass. In addition, cirrus outflow has been expanding in all quadrants, especially in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity of 75 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, a Data-T-number of T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and an NHC objective intensity estimate of T4.4/75 kt. It is also worth noting that bursts of lightning activity in the eastern eyewall have been occurring since around 1100 UTC. The initial motion estimate is now 285/06 kt. Oscar has slowed its forward motion significantly and has made the advertised turn toward the west-northwest. A motion toward the northwest is expected by late afternoon today as the hurricane rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. A turns toward the north and then toward the north-northeast are forecast on Tuesday as Oscar moves north of the ridge axis ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer trough currently approaching Bermuda. The trough is expected to continue advancing eastward over the next couple of days, accelerating Oscar toward the northeast at forward speeds near 25 kt on Wednesday through Friday. Although a strong shortwave trough is still forecast to dig southward to the west of Oscar on Wednesday, none of the model guidance shows the hurricane being captured any longer, and instead keep the cyclone as a separate entity that accelerates northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies as a strong extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to an average of the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE and the simple consensus models TVCA and TVCX. Deep-layer (850-200 mb) shear calculations by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS are at least 25 kt from the northwest, which clearly is not negatively affecting the improving cirrus outflow. This is likely due to the large 1000-km domain that the SHIPS model uses to compute vertical wind shear. Furthermore, most of the cloud top temperatures within the outflow layer appear to be mostly below the 200-mb level, and closer to the 250-mb level. The large shear values are resulting in much less intensification forecast by the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity models. As a result, the official intensity forecast leans more toward the HCCA and FSSE models, which are weighing more heavily the stronger intensity forecasts provided by the HWRF, HMON, and Navy COAMPS-TC models, which have Oscar strengthening to just below major hurricane status in 24-36 hours. By 48 hours and beyond, sharply decreasing SSTs along with increasing southwesterly shear ahead of a deep-layer trough are expected to cause Oscar to gradually weaken and transition to a strong extratropical low in 60-72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 25.8N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 28.7N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 31.4N 56.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 35.0N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 43.0N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z 55.0N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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