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Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-10-28 15:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 281450 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-10-28 15:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 281449 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 53.8W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 60SE 120SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 53.8W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 53.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.6N 55.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.2N 57.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.3N 58.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.3N 57.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.1N 51.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 45.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 53.0N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 53.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Oscar Graphics
2018-10-28 09:36:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Oct 2018 08:36:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Oct 2018 09:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-10-28 09:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280834 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 Deep convection near the center of Oscar has diminished somewhat over the past several hours. However, there are tightly curved cloud bands very near the center indicating a well-organized cyclone. Given that the central convection has not increased, the current intensity estimate is held at 55 kt which is a little above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates but close to the value indicated by the previous scatterometer data. Oscar should remain in a moderate vertical shear environment, and over 26-27 deg C SSTs, for the next couple of days which would allow for some strengthening. The official forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus and calls for the system to become a hurricane soon. Near or just beyond 96 hours, the shear is forecast to increase substantially and Oscar should begin to make the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The storm has been moving southwestward, or 235/13 kt, on the southeastern side of a northeast to southwest-oriented mid-level ridge. The ridge is likely to build to the north of Oscar within 12 to 24 hours, resulting in a turn toward the west. The cyclone should then turn toward the northwest and north as the ridge shifts eastward and a trough moves off the eastern U.S. coast. In the latter half of the forecast period, the system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow ahead of the trough. The official track forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, and similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 25.0N 52.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 25.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 25.5N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 26.4N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 27.9N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 34.6N 53.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 42.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 50.0N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-28 09:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 28 the center of Oscar was located near 25.0, -52.6 with movement SW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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