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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-29 15:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 29 the center of Oscar was located near 25.8, -58.4 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 11
2018-10-29 15:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 291434 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 ...OSCAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 58.4W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today, followed by a motion toward the north tonight. On Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-10-29 15:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 291434 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 58.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 90SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 58.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 58.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.8N 58.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.7N 58.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.4N 56.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.0N 52.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 43.0N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 140SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 55.0N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 58.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-29 09:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Oct 2018 08:38:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Oct 2018 09:22:07 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-10-29 09:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290835 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 The cloud pattern of Oscar has continued to become better organized, with a growing CDO and convective banding features are better defined, especially over the southern semicircle of the hurricane. Upper-level outflow is gradually becoming better established to the south. Although the most recent Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 65 kt, given that the eye is becoming better defined, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt. Oscar is currently under some northerly to north-northwesterly shear, but the shear is expected to diminish somewhat later today. Also, the tropical cyclone is expected to move through a modestly moist air mass for the next day or two. Therefore, additional strengthening is forecast through 36 hours in agreement with the latest intensity model consensus. Around 48 hours into the forecast period, the shear begins to increase significantly, with notably cooler SSTs. This should lead to the onset of a steady weakening trend. By about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Oscar will become embedded in a frontal zone, so the official forecast shows the system becoming an extratropical cyclone at that time. Oscar has slowed its forward motion and is now moving at about 270/11 kt. A mid-level high to the north of the cyclone is expected to quickly shift eastward, while a mid-latitude trough approaches Oscar from the west in a day or so. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Oscar to turn northward to north-northeastward in 24-48 hours. Later in the forecast period, Oscar is likely to move quickly northeastward on the eastern side of the trough. There has been some inconsistencies in the track model guidance around 5 days over the last few forecast cycles, with the model consensus, TVCN, shifting significantly southward and then northward. The official forecast track is somewhat to the left of the previous one near the end of the period, to reflect the latest consensus prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 25.7N 57.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 26.1N 58.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 27.7N 58.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 30.0N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 41.5N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z 46.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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