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Remnants of Katia Forecast Advisory Number 16
2017-09-09 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091431 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 97.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 97.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 97.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 97.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Remnants of Harvey Graphics
2017-08-20 04:37:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 02:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 03:24:08 GMT
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Remnants of Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-08-20 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200233 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Harvey Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Harvey earlier this evening and was unable to close off a center of circulation. The plane found a well-defined wind shift across the wave axis, and winds decreased as the plane flew south along the axis toward a pressure minimum south of 14N. Harvey has therefore degenerated into an open wave, and this will be the last advisory. Maximum surface winds, as measured by the plane, remain 30 kt. As a side note, the associated deep convection has continued to lose organization and is now oriented linearly from northeast to southwest along the wave axis. Harvey's remnants are moving quickly westward with a motion of 275/19 kt. A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the wave moves along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A break in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico could cause the system to turn northwestward and slow down as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche in 3-5 days. The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, deserve a lot of credit for showing Harvey dissipating, or at least not strengthening, over the Caribbean Sea. Even though the vertical shear that has been plaguing the system is expected to diminish in 24-48 hours, the system's fast motion and ambient dry air will likely keep Harvey's remnants from regenerating into a tropical cyclone in the near term. For that reason, the solutions shown by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET appear most reasonable, keeping the system as an open wave, or possibly regenerating to a tropical depression before it reaches Belize and the Yucatan coast. Regeneration is also possible if the remnants emerge over the Bay of Campeche. The remnants of Harvey will be monitored for signs of regeneration and for the possibility of bringing tropical storm conditions to Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. If necessary, advisories could be resumed and tropical storm watches or warnings issued before Harvey regains tropical cyclone status. Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for this system's potential to regenerate into a tropical cyclone, beginning with the 2 AM issuance on Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.3N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF HARVEY 12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Remnants of Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-08-20 04:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 200232 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS ...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Remnants of Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-20 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Harvey was located near 14.3, -71.8 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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