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Remnants of Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-07-08 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082035 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Beryl Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 Satellite imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data confirm the sharp open-trough pattern that was indicated by earlier aircraft reconnaissance wind data. Although Beryl has a well-defined, tight vortex noted in GOES-16 hi-res visible satellite imagery, that feature appears to be located above the surface. The latest radar data from Martinique also shows little if any rotation in the most recent convective burst that has developed just north of the aforementioned vortex. Given that the remnants of Beryl are now moving at a forward speed of at least 23 kt, it is highly unlikely that the very small circulation is closed at the surface. The intensity remains at 40 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance 56-kt flight-level wind data and the latest burst of convection that has developed in the same general location as those earlier winds. Now that Beryl is no longer considered to be a tropical cyclone, the reconnaissance mission for this evening has been canceled. On days 3-5, there appears to be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical wind shear conditions are forecast by most of the models to be light, with even the possibility of the development of a weak upper-level anticyclone across the Bahamas. The combination of the favorable upper-level wind flow pattern in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C should yield conditions conducive for the reformation of a tropical cyclone, although Beryl's low-level remnants are likely to be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola and could take some time to reform. The initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl should maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next 12 hours, passing over the Leeward Islands tonight and moving into the northeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. Although Beryl is no longer a tropical cyclone, advisories will continue to be issued on this system until the tropical storm watch for Dominica has been discontinued. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible for Dominica tonight. Elsewhere across the Leeward Islands, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible tonight and Monday, and these conditions are expected to spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.2N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 09/0600Z 16.2N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE 24H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Remnants of Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-07-08 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 082035 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUADELOUPE 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) AVES 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Remnants of Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-08 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...REMNANTS OF BERYL RACING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 15.2, -60.3 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Remnants of Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-07-08 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 082034 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. THE OTHER RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE CARIBBEAN AREA HAVE DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE... AND HAVE DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE... ST. MARTIN... ST. BARTHELEMY... SABA... ST. MAARTEN... AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE... WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF BERYL. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 60.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 60.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 59.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.2N 63.3W...TROPICAL WAVE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Remnants of Beryl Public Advisory Number 14
2018-07-08 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Beryl Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 ...REMNANTS OF BERYL RACING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 60.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NE OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Barbados has replaced the Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica with a Tropical Storm Watch. The other respective governments of the Caribbean area have discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, and have discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Maarten, and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case, within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of the remnants of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Beryl were located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 60.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (42 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the remnants of Beryl will move across the Leeward Islands, and move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight weakening is anticipated during the next 24 hours. However, environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone in a few days when the remnants of Beryl are forecast to move across the Bahamas and the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight. Strong gusty winds are also possible elsewhere across the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce storm total rain accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday across the Leeward and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Local amounts up to 5 inches are possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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