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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-06-24 16:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241441 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 2 20 39 TROP DEPRESSION 2 2 2 2 15 44 45 TROPICAL STORM 84 45 36 41 64 35 16 HURRICANE 14 54 63 57 18 2 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 45 44 38 16 2 X HUR CAT 2 1 7 14 12 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 4 5 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 70KT 70KT 55KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 8( 9) 18(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 44(57) 13(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-24 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 the center of COSME was located near 14.1, -105.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm COSME Public Advisory Number 5
2013-06-24 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 ...COSME STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 105.8W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND COSME COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-24 11:07:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jun 2013 08:47:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jun 2013 09:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-24 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 the center of COSME was located near 12.8, -105.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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