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Hurricane COSME Public Advisory Number 10
2013-06-25 22:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 252050 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 ...COSME GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 112.4W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COSME IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO THROUGH CABO CORRIENTES TODAY...AND AFFECT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LOS MOCHIS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane COSME Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-06-25 22:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 252050 TCMEP3 HURRICANE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.4W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 60SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 540SE 480SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 112.4W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.3N 116.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...165NE 135SE 60SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 119.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 105SE 0SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-06-25 16:42:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251442 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT. IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSED EYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. COSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN NORMAL. COSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADY WEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-06-25 16:42:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 251442 PWSEP3 HURRICANE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 5 23 33 31 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 10 25 43 46 48 TROPICAL STORM 7 34 65 58 33 20 20 HURRICANE 93 65 24 12 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 78 52 20 10 1 1 1 HUR CAT 2 13 10 3 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 2 3 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 70KT 55KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 25 61(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA CLARION 50 1 53(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ISLA CLARION 64 X 22(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-25 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...CENTER TO PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 the center of COSME was located near 17.7, -110.7 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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