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Hurricane COSME Graphics
2013-06-26 05:07:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2013 02:51:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-06-26 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260250 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 A BANDING EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT COSME NEARLY HAD A CLOSED EYEWALL AROUND 0000 UTC. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CLOSING. COSME IS LOCATED OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS MOVING INTO A HOSTILE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...AND COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/12. WHILE THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER COSME GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...ALLOWING COSME TO GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.9N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.5N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 20.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 21.7N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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Hurricane COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-06-26 04:49:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260249 PWSEP3 HURRICANE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 13 31 30 40 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 21 37 44 46 45 TROPICAL STORM 17 63 64 45 25 22 15 HURRICANE 84 35 11 5 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 77 30 10 4 1 1 X HUR CAT 2 5 4 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 60KT 45KT 35KT 25KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLA CLARION 64 44 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-26 04:48:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 the center of COSME was located near 17.9, -113.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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hurricane cosme
Hurricane COSME Public Advisory Number 11
2013-06-26 04:48:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260248 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 ...COSME LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY... ...WEAKENING EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 113.3W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COSME HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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