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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-06-25 04:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0300 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 360SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.7N 109.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 40SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.4N 112.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.7N 116.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-24 23:07:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jun 2013 20:36:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jun 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-06-24 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 THE CENTER OF COSME IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THERE IS NOW A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE TO THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 310/12...AS THE CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO TRACK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES...COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WHILE IT WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.0N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.0N 108.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Storm COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-24 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 the center of COSME was located near 15.0, -107.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm COSME Public Advisory Number 6
2013-06-24 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 242032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 ...COSME CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 107.1W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...WITH THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR MANZANILLO THROUGH CABO CORRIENTES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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