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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-06-25 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0900 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 3 16 34 32 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 6 17 40 46 48 TROPICAL STORM 40 19 58 63 41 19 20 HURRICANE 60 81 35 17 3 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 58 29 15 3 1 1 HUR CAT 2 3 17 5 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 5 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 60KT 50KT 35KT 25KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 58 3(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ISLA CLARION 34 6 64(70) 18(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA CLARION 50 X 19(19) 32(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ISLA CLARION 64 X 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-25 05:07:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jun 2013 02:38:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jun 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-06-25 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0300 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 11 36 34 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 8 35 45 48 TROPICAL STORM 40 19 38 57 50 19 18 HURRICANE 60 81 60 34 5 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 58 43 27 4 X X HUR CAT 2 3 17 13 6 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 5 4 2 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 70KT 60KT 40KT 25KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 27 30(57) 2(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 1 14(15) 54(69) 11(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 30(31) 11(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-25 04:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 the center of COSME was located near 15.9, -107.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm COSME Public Advisory Number 7
2013-06-25 04:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 ...COSME LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 107.9W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR MANZANILLO THROUGH CABO CORRIENTES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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