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Tropical Storm COSME Public Advisory Number 4
2013-06-24 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240845 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 ...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 105.2W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...COSME WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND COSME BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-06-24 10:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240845 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0900 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 1 1 3 17 36 TROP DEPRESSION 11 14 8 3 19 42 47 TROPICAL STORM 88 76 63 46 64 39 17 HURRICANE 1 9 28 50 14 2 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 9 23 36 12 2 X HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 10 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 50KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 27(50) X(50) X(50) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-06-24 10:45:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240844 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0900 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 104.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 110.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 118.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.7N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 105.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-06-24 10:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240844 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SEVERAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM COSME. IN FACT...ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT 0404Z AND 0450Z...RESPECTIVELY...INDICATED SEVERAL 34- TO 37-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO REVEALED THAT COSME HAD MOVED MORE WESTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THAT THE CENTER AS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL CDO-LIKE CONVECTIVE FEATURE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09 KT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT AS INDICATED IN UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSES IS THE LIKELY REASON FOR THE RECENT WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER... THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND COSME IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF COSME SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EXPECTED WEAKENING AND VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. SINCE COSME IS ALREADY AT LEAST 30 NMI TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW ADVISORY TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH... AND BASICALLY LIES ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...AS COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 72 HOURS. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 90 NMI SHOULD KEEP INTENSIFICATION SLOWER THAN THE AVERAGE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY. BY 72 HOURS...COSME WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 12.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 19.7N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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