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Hurricane COSME Public Advisory Number 9
2013-06-25 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 251441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 ...COSME BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...CENTER TO PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 110.7W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COSME SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO THROUGH CABO CORRIENTES TODAY...AND AFFECT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO LOS MOCHIS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane COSME Forecast Advisory Number 9
2013-06-25 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 251441 TCMEP3 HURRICANE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.7W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 420SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.7W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-25 11:07:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jun 2013 08:48:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jun 2013 09:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-06-25 10:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250841 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE INTERNAL AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT ABOUT T3.6/57 KT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. A BLEND OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT ADT VALUES... AND CIRA AND CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 47 KT AND 49 KT... RESPECTIVELY...YIELDS AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS SYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WERE USED TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF COSME...WHICH YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/14 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COSME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...A RAPIDLY WEAKENING COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE...AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT COSME HAS AGAIN MOVED INTO A MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY BE THE CAUSE OF THE RECENT DISHEVELED LOOKING INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIMES LATER TODAY...ALLOWING COSME TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES SUB-25C SSTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 48 HOURS...AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.5N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.2N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.9N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.3N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 20.4N 124.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.9N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 20.9N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-25 10:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 the center of COSME was located near 16.5, -109.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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