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Hurricane COSME Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-06-26 04:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260247 TCMEP3 HURRICANE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0300 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.3W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 540SE 480SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.3W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.7N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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Hurricane COSME Graphics
2013-06-25 23:07:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jun 2013 20:52:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jun 2013 21:03:43 GMT
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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-06-25 22:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252051 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY ONLY PERIODICALLY SHOWS THIS FEATURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES HAVE INCREASED AND SUGGEST A RANGE OF 65 TO 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...COSME JOGGED BACK TO THE LEFT SOME AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED TO BE 295/15. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. AS COSME GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER SPEED AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG BY THE MID TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT THE 12 AND 24 HOUR POINTS AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS. WHILE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OCCURRING NOW AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION... COSME INSTEAD WILL LIKELY BE PEAKING SHORTLY IN INTENSITY DUE TO ITS TRAVERSING RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS. ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...COSME SHOULD PASS THE 26C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND REACH SUB-22C SSTS BY THURSDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE PEAKING SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY RATHER QUICK WEAKENING DUE TO RATHER HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS. THE PREDICTION ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...BUT THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSEST TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDED BY TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.9N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.5N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 20.3N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 22.0N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-06-25 22:51:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 252051 PWSEP3 HURRICANE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 9 33 32 42 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 10 32 43 46 44 TROPICAL STORM 7 47 65 51 23 21 14 HURRICANE 93 51 24 7 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 78 43 20 6 1 1 X HUR CAT 2 13 6 3 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 2 2 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 65KT 55KT 40KT 25KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 93 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 60 22(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 64 13 28(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Hurricane COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-25 22:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 the center of COSME was located near 17.9, -112.4 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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