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Summary for Hurricane COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-26 10:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NEAR CLARION ISLAND... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 the center of COSME was located near 18.4, -114.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane COSME Public Advisory Number 12
2013-06-26 10:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 ...COSME BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES NEAR CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 114.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF COSME WILL PASS OVER OR VERY NEAR CLARION ISLAND THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-06-26 10:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260832 PWSEP3 HURRICANE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0900 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 7 18 29 30 39 TROP DEPRESSION X 9 28 41 45 46 45 TROPICAL STORM 40 77 59 38 26 23 15 HURRICANE 60 13 7 3 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 12 6 3 1 1 X HUR CAT 2 3 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 3 1 X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 50KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane COSME Forecast Advisory Number 12
2013-06-26 10:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260831 TCMEP3 HURRICANE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0900 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 540SE 480SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.6N 121.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.7N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane COSME Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-06-26 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260831 TCDEP3 HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME LIKELY PEAKED WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT AT 0000 AND 0600 UTC BASED ON A BLEND OF VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE PRESENCE OF AN 18 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN WINDSAT...SSMIS...AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0430 UTC. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY AS COSME HAS BEGUN ITS TREK OVER COLDER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT. AFTER THE MULTIPLE JOGS AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...HURRICANE COSME APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A NICE SMOOTH MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MASSIVE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH... AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. COSME IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER...REACHING SUB-22C SSTS BY 36 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND THE ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FACTORS THAT COULD POSSIBLY HELP COSME RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS. BY 18-24 HOURS... HOWEVER...THE MUCH COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE... WITH DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS... IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INDICATES DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.4N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.6N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.1N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 21.7N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 21.7N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 21.7N 138.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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