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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 2A
2017-08-28 07:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280545 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 81.0W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The system is currently stationary. A slow and erratic motion is forecast through this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts today and move along the North Carolina coast tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday. A wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h) has recently been reported at NOAA's Gray's Reef buoy off the Georgia coast. Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms show some signs of organization, but the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-28 04:39:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 02:39:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 02:39:59 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-08-28 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280234 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Deep convection has been increasing in both intensity and coverage during the past several hours in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten. However, satellite and radar data indicate that the circulation remains poorly defined, therefore, the system is not yet a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the surrounding surface observations and the earlier ASCAT data. The disturbance is located in weak steering currents, and has been meandering during the last several hours. A continued slow and erratic motion is likely to continue overnight and early Monday. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over the central U.S. is expected to approach the system, and should cause the disturbance to begin moving northeastward by late Monday. A faster east- northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast thereafter when the system becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The models are in fair agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This forecast takes the center of the disturbance near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Monday and along the North Carolina coastline Monday night and Tuesday. The elongated center of the disturbance is located to the west of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. The shear is only expected to lessen a little during the next 12 to 24 hours, but it will likely weaken enough to allow the system to become a tropical cyclone. After that time, increasing shear and interaction with the aforementioned trough should cause the disturbance to lose its tropical characteristics in about 48 hours. Strengthening is likely for a couple of days while the system is post-tropical due to baroclinic effects. Although the potential for tropical storm winds are within the warning time period (36 hours), given the uncertainty in whether these winds will occur on land in northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina, a tropical storm watch remains in effect for those areas. Note that north of Duck, North Carolina, hazards from this system will be handled with non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 30.5N 80.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/1200Z 30.9N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 29/0000Z 32.3N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 34.4N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 31/0000Z 39.9N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 43.2N 53.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z 47.2N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-08-28 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 280233 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 12(12) 17(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 4( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 9(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 16(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 4 15(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAVANNAH GA 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) KINGS BAY GA 34 21 5(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 20 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) JACKSONVILLE 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-28 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 the center of Ten was located near 30.5, -80.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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