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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2018-08-26 22:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 809 FOPZ15 KNHC 262031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 1 26(27) 3(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 130W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 51(60) 11(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 9(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 32(73) 4(77) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) 3(43) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 29(37) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)

2018-08-26 22:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MIRIAM FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 the center of Miriam was located near 13.6, -126.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 3

2018-08-26 22:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 394 WTPZ35 KNHC 262030 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 ...MIRIAM FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 126.6W ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 126.6 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Miriam is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 3

2018-08-26 22:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 393 WTPZ25 KNHC 262030 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 126.6W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 126.6W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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