je.st
news
Tag: miriam
Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-27 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 27 Aug 2018 14:37:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Aug 2018 14:37:20 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
miriam
Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-27 16:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 364 WTPZ45 KNHC 271436 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 The convective structure of Miriam has become better organized this morning, with a continued increase in overall banding. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined band over the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation but there was some evidence of northwesterly shear with the center near the northwestern edge of the primary convective band. The initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt, which is supported by a Dvorak Data T-number of 3.5 from TAFB, earlier AMSU data, and recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates of T3.7 (59 kt). Satellite fixes indicate that Miriam is moving westward or 270 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone should remain on a westward heading over the next 48 hours while it is steered by a large deep-layer ridge to the north. After that time, a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to produce a break in the ridge between 140W-150W. This should cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward between days 3 through 5. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there are some differences in Miriam's forward speed after recurvature begins. The ECMWF and UKMET take Miriam much faster northward than the remainder of the dynamical models, and the NHC track forecast is once again close to the various consensus aids at 72 h and beyond to account for the speed differences. The global models suggest that there will be a gradual increase in northwesterly shear over Miriam during the next day or so, however, this is not expected to prevent the cyclone from becoming a hurricane within the next 24 hours. The moderate shear is forecast to relax by Tuesday night, which should allow for additional intensification. The intensity guidance is not quite as aggressive as before, and the NHC intensity forecast, which lies between the IVCN intensity consensus model and the HFIP corrected consensus, has been adjusted slightly downward. Increasingly southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters are expected to cause Miriam to weaken late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 13.9N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 13.9N 132.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 15.5N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 23.3N 143.2W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-27 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 the center of Miriam was located near 13.9, -130.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
ep5ep152018
Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 6
2018-08-27 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 770 WTPZ35 KNHC 271435 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...MIRIAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 130.5W ABOUT 1485 MI...2385 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 130.5 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, Miriam will approach the central Pacific basin late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days, and Miriam is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-08-27 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 788 FOPZ15 KNHC 271435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 1500 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 2 37(39) 27(66) 1(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 135W 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 56(85) 3(88) X(88) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 4(55) X(55) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 3(33) X(33) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 11(42) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Sites : [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] next »