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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-27 16:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 249 WTPZ25 KNHC 271435 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 1500 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.5W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.5W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.9N 132.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.5N 140.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.3N 143.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-27 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Aug 2018 08:37:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-27 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 996 WTPZ45 KNHC 270835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 Miriam's cloud pattern and overall convective organization have continued to improve, with a tight comma-cloud pattern now evident in infrared imagery. Two recent ASCAT passes around 0600Z indicate that the low-level center is now located just inside the northwest quadrant of the convective comma head, and that the radius of maximum winds (RMW) is still about 20 nmi that was ascertained from earlier passive microwave low-level ring data. The ASCAT data indicated peak winds of only 37 kt, but this is likely an underestimate of Miriam's actual intensity due to a) the data having been located near the swath edge and b) due to Miriam's small RMW. The advisory intensity of 50 kt is based on a average of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates that range from T3.0/45 kt to T3.6/57 kt, respectively. The previous advisory's 34-kt wind radii remain unchanged based on the aforementioned ASCAT wind data. Miriam is now moving due west or 270/13 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone is expected to maintain a general westward motion for the next 72 h as Miriam moves along the southern periphery of a strong ridge to its north. By 96 h and beyond, Miriam is forecast to move northward to north-northwestward through a break in the subtropical ridge near created by a strong mid- to upper-level trough/low forecast to drop southward between 140W-150W from the upper-low's current position over the central North Pacific. The latest model guidance has come into better agreement on both the timing and location of the northward turn, although noticeable speed differences still exist, with the ECMWF and UKMET being the faster models. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory track, and is just a tad north of the HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN consensus models. Steady strengthening still appears likely for the next couple of days. Miriam's upper-level outflow has improved some and is less restricted in the northwest quadrant, a signal that the shear is beginning to relax, which would support steady or significant strengthening in the short term. By 36-48 h, however, the shear is forecast by the global models to again increase to 15-20 kt from the northwest, which should inhibit the intensification process during that time. Around 72 h, the shear is expected to decrease yet again, followed by another increase in the shear. Rather than showing roller-coaster fluctuations, the NHC intensity forecast just calls for steady strengthening through 48-72 h, followed by a gradual weakening trend, which mirrors the previous advisory trend and is close to an average of the HCCA and FSSE intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 13.9N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 13.8N 133.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 13.8N 135.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 14.7N 140.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 22.0N 142.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-08-27 10:36:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 838 FOPZ15 KNHC 270835 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 12 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 10N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 1 5( 6) 55(61) 7(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 63(75) 9(84) X(84) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 11(51) 1(52) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) X(31) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 17(38) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-27 10:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 the center of Miriam was located near 13.9, -129.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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