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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 9
2018-08-28 10:38:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 813 WTPZ35 KNHC 280838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 ...MIRIAM MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 133.5W ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 133.5 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Miriam is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-08-28 10:38:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 840 FOPZ15 KNHC 280838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 48 6(54) 1(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 135W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 1 3( 4) 44(48) 42(90) 4(94) X(94) 1(95) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 48(56) 11(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 10(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 28(54) 2(56) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-08-28 10:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 396 WTPZ25 KNHC 280837 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.5W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.5W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.0N 135.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.1N 137.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 138.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.1N 140.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.9N 141.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 26.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-28 04:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 02:36:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 03:27:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-08-28 04:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 917 WTPZ45 KNHC 280235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 Miriam hasn't changed much over the past several hours. Last-light visible imagery and a couple of microwave overpasses around 0000 UTC show that the tropical storm remains lightly sheared from the northwest. Although outflow from the deepest inner-core convection seems to have become better established, cloud tops from outer bands to the north and east are still moving toward the center of the cyclone, indicating there is still shear below the outflow layer. The initial intensity has been held at 55 kt, in agreement with nearly all of the objective and subjective satellite estimates. Miriam continues to move westward, and the forward speed is now 10 kt. The guidance remains in very good agreement on the track of Miriam for the next 36 hours, with only slight speed differences between the various models. Beyond that time, the tropical storm should begin to turn north-northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge created by a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Pacific. The model spread increases drastically at this point, with the ECMWF showing a quicker turn and a faster north-northwestward motion than the GFS, with most of the other guidance in between. For now, the NHC forecast has not been significantly changed, and remains near the corrected consensus, HCCA. The moderate shear currently affecting Miriam is forecast by the global models to continue for the next 24 h or so, preventing the cyclone from strengthening significantly. Between 24 and 72 h, this shear is forecast to decrease, allowing the cyclone to strengthen at a quicker rate. By the end of the forecast period, Miriam should quickly weaken as it encounters higher shear and cooler SSTs. The HWRF is a notable outlier, showing much faster intensification, but it is possible this model is not properly representing the shear currently affecting Miriam. That said, if the shear decreases sooner than expected, it is possible that Miriam could intensify much faster than currently anticipated. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and shows a slightly slower initial intensification rate for Miriam, and a faster decay by day 5, than the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 14.0N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 14.0N 134.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 14.0N 136.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 15.0N 139.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 17.5N 141.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 21.5N 142.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 26.0N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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