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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 10
2018-08-28 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 112 WTPZ35 KNHC 281455 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 ...MIRIAM CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 135.4W ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 135.4 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Miriam is still expected to become a hurricane Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-08-28 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 111 WTPZ25 KNHC 281455 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 135.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 135.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 134.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.2N 136.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N 138.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 140.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.6N 141.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 141.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 142.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.0N 144.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 135.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/LATTO
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Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-28 10:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 08:39:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 09:27:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-28 10:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 039 WTPZ45 KNHC 280838 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 Miriam's cloud pattern has still not improved very much, with microwave data showing the low-level center still slightly displaced from the deep convection due to about 10 kt of northwesterly shear. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as the UW-CIMSS SATCON, all remain near 55 kt, which will remain Miriam's initial intensity. Miriam is expected to remain over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 48-72 hours, which should allow the cyclone to strengthen modestly over the next few days. At 72 hours and beyond, Miriam will encounter significantly stronger shear ahead of an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and the cyclone will also move over sub-26C waters. These conditions should cause a rather quick weakening trend on days 4 and 5, with Miriam barely hanging on as a tropical storm by the end of the forecast period. The intensity guidance has decreased somewhat on this forecast cycle, probably because Miriam has less time before it reaches stronger shear. The updated NHC intensity forecast lies between the HCCA guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus, with the forecast peak intensity just slightly below that of the previous advisory. The initial motion is due westward, or 270/10 kt, with Miriam located along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The amplifying trough northeast of Hawaii is breaking down the ridge and should cause Miriam to turn sharply toward the northwest and north between days 2 and 4. There are significant speed differences among the models by days 4 and 5, related to how deep Miriam is when it interacts with the deep-layer trough. The ECMWF, which maintains a deeper, stronger vortex, shoots Miriam quickly northward, ending up more than 600-700 nm north of where the GFS and HWRF models have the cyclone by day 5. Given where the consensus aids lie between those two extremes, the updated NHC track forecast has been slowed down a bit from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 14.0N 133.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 14.0N 135.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 14.1N 137.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 14.4N 138.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 15.1N 140.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 17.9N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 26.0N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-28 10:38:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM MOVING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 the center of Miriam was located near 14.0, -133.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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