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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-08-27 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 553 WTPZ45 KNHC 272032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 Miriam has become a little better organized since the last advisory, and the convective banding has become better defined around the low-level center. However, this has not yet resulted in an increase of the various satellite intensity estimates, which remain mostly near 55 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 55 kt. Satellite imagery continues to indicate northwesterly to northerly vertical shear affecting Miriam, with cirrus clouds from the outer band to the north blowing into the central convection. The initial motion is 270/13. A large low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Miriam should continue to steer it westward for the next 36-48 h with some decrease in forward speed. After that, a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to cause the ridge to break between 140W-150W, with Miriam turning northwestward and north-northwestward in response. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remain some differences in Miriam's forward speed after recurvature between the faster ECMWF/UKMET and the slower GFS. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 h, then is nudged a little to the east based on an eastward shift in the consensus models. The global models continue to suggest a gradual increase in northwesterly shear over Miriam during the next day or so, followed by decreased shear from 24-48 h. There is some divergence in the intensity guidance through 72 h, with the SHIPS/LGEM models showing less strengthening than the HWRF/HMON/corrected consensus models. This part of the new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast and lies between these two model camps. After 72 h, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters are expected to cause Miriam to weaken. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.0N 131.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.0N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 13.9N 135.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 14.5N 139.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 16.5N 141.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 20.0N 142.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 24.5N 143.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-27 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 the center of Miriam was located near 14.0, -131.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 7
2018-08-27 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 332 WTPZ35 KNHC 272032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018 ...MIRIAM SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 131.8W ABOUT 1560 MI...2505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 131.8 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, Miriam will approach the central Pacific basin late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days, and Miriam is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-08-27 22:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 375 FOPZ15 KNHC 272032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 4 58(62) 3(65) 1(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 135W 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 53(62) 29(91) 1(92) X(92) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 42(60) 1(61) X(61) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 32(42) 5(47) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 25N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-08-27 22:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 777 WTPZ25 KNHC 272031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.9N 135.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 20.0N 142.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 131.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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