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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-26 16:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 565 WTPZ45 KNHC 261438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized this morning, with a significant increase in banding noted in conventional satellite imagery. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed the increase in banding, but the low-level center was located near the northeastern portion of the main convective mass. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5 (35 k) was the basis for the 1200 UTC synoptic intensity, but with the continued increase in organization, the initial wind speed for this advisory has been set to 40 kt. Miriam is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The tropical storm should remain on a general westward heading during the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. The orientation of the ridge may shift more west-southwestward within the next day or so, which could steer the tropical storm on a track slightly south of due west. The bulk of the dynamical model guidance has shifted southward, so the NHC forecast track has been adjusted accordingly through the first 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the subtropical ridge between 140W-145W longitude is expected to cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end of the forecast period. The latter portion of the official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. The environment ahead of Miriam is expected to remain favorable for strengthening. The tropical storm will be traversing SSTs of 27-28C and within low vertical wind shear conditions. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the next few days and is at the upper-end of the intensity guidance. Although the various rapid intensification prediction techniques are not particularly bullish, perhaps due to the low initial intensity of the cyclone, it would not be surprising if the tropical storm went through a period of rapid intensification within the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the more aggressive HWRF and HMON dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-26 16:38:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 the center of Miriam was located near 13.2, -125.3 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 2
2018-08-26 16:38:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 387 WTPZ35 KNHC 261438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 125.3W ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 125.3 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next the next few days, and Miriam is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-08-26 16:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 320 FOPZ15 KNHC 261438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 130W 34 1 29(30) 18(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 30(64) 1(65) X(65) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 44(64) 8(72) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 8(39) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-08-26 16:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 202 WTPZ25 KNHC 261437 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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