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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-08-28 22:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 791 WTPZ25 KNHC 282034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 135.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.2N 138.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.3N 142.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.6N 143.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 136.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/LATTO
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Tropical Storm Miriam Graphics
2018-08-28 17:06:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 15:06:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 15:27:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-08-28 16:56:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 717 FOPZ15 KNHC 281456 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 26 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 10N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 1 32(33) 53(86) 5(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 140W 50 X 2( 2) 45(47) 9(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 18(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) 15(44) 1(45) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 1(21) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-28 16:56:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 674 WTPZ45 KNHC 281456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 A very recently arriving high-resolution microwave overpass indicates that Miriam is a sheared tropical cyclone. The GPM pass shows that the center of Miriam is located well northwest of the primary mass of deep convection due to moderate northwesterly shear. The center of the cyclone is located well west of the earlier position estimates, which has also required a re-location. The most recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as UW-CIMSS/ADT, support an initial intensity, however, this could be generous given the recent microwave data. Environmental conditions are not expected to change over the next 24 hours, with possibly a slight reduction in the shear in 24 to 48 hours. This would suggest that Miriam should only gradually strengthen over the next couple of days and it is likely to reach its peak intensity in 2-3 days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters are expected to initiate weakening. By 96 hours, the shear is forecast to become quite strong and Miriam will be moving over sub 26C SSTs. These progressively hostile conditions should cause Miriam to become a post-tropical cyclone by 120 hours. The latest intensity forecast is close to the FSU Superensemble, and generally in between the ICON and HCCA consensus models. The initial motion continues to be due westward, or 270/12 kt, as Miriam continues to be steered around the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough northeast of Hawaii will weaken the western periphery of the ridge over the next couple of days, and Miriam is forecast to turn northwest then north-northwest, between the ridge and the aforementioned trough. Forecast models diverge regarding the forward speed of Miriam at days 3-5, depending how they handle the interaction of Miriam with the the trough to its northwest. The ECMWF continues to favor an accelerating northward track as Miriam gets caught in strong southerly flow on the eastern side of the trough. The GFS is much farther southwestward, as it appears to take a more shallow Miriam westward later in the forecast period. Since the consensus aids remain clustered between these two scenarios, the latest forecast NHC track is once again near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.2N 135.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 14.2N 136.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 14.3N 138.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.7N 140.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 15.6N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 141.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 22.0N 142.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 26.0N 144.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-28 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 the center of Miriam was located near 14.2, -135.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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