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Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)

2018-08-29 10:52:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MIRIAM A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 the center of Miriam was located near 14.2, -138.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 13

2018-08-29 10:52:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 145 WTPZ35 KNHC 290852 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018 ...MIRIAM A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 138.4W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 138.4 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or two, but Miriam is expected to begin weakening by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 13

2018-08-29 10:52:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 144 WTPZ25 KNHC 290852 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.4W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.4W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.4N 142.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 144.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 138.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2018-08-29 10:52:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 123 FOPZ15 KNHC 290852 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 75 17(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 140W 50 9 34(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 140W 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 2(24) X(24) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 5(18) X(18) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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