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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-29 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 680 WTPZ45 KNHC 290233 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 There's been little change in the overall cloud pattern of Miriam during the past several hours. An earlier Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass and a 2053 UTC GCOM-W1 AMSR2 image indicate that the surface center is still sheared to the northwest of the deep convective banding feature encompassing the southern portion of the cyclone. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged, and a 2213 UTC SATCON analysis showed 51 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. The intensity forecast is rather problematic this evening. Decay SHIPS guidance (both GFS and ECMWF background fields) shows the moderate northwesterly shear increasing after 48 hours, while indicating little change in strength up to that period. After that time, these statistical/dynamical guidance models quickly degenerate the cyclone into a remnant low in 4 days. The NOAA-HCCA, HWRF, and the IVCN consensus model, on the other hand, all show Miriam becoming a hurricane in 36-48 hours. For this advisory, I've elected to maintain continuity and show gradual strengthening to just below hurricane strength in 36 hours, with a weakening trend commencing in 3 days. All the deterministic models agree with Miriam becoming a remnant low in 5 days, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/11 kt, within the easterly mid-level steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric high to the north of Miriam. The cyclone is expected to turn toward the northwest in 36 hours, then rather abruptly north-northwestward in 2 days and continuing on through day 4, in response to a large mid- to upper level cutoff low digging southwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands. A large spread in the models still exists in the latter portion of the forecast, as mentioned in the previous advisory. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged with a nudge more toward a blend of the TVCN consensus and the global models that show a gradual turn back toward the northwest due to a shallower vertical structure near the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 14.1N 137.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 14.5N 140.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 15.4N 141.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 16.7N 141.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 20.2N 142.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 23.4N 143.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 26.5N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Miriam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-08-29 04:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 924 FOPZ15 KNHC 290232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 9 67(76) 7(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 140W 50 X 24(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 140W 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 24(29) 2(31) 1(32) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Miriam (EP5/EP152018)
2018-08-29 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MIRIAM MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION... ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 the center of Miriam was located near 14.1, -137.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Miriam Public Advisory Number 12
2018-08-29 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 891 WTPZ35 KNHC 290232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Miriam Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018 ...MIRIAM MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION... ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 137.4W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Miriam was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 137.4 West. Miriam is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a turn toward the north on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Some gradual strengthening is possible Wednesday night and Thursday, before weakening begins on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-08-29 04:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 437 WTPZ25 KNHC 290231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018 0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.5N 140.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.4N 141.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.7N 141.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 142.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 23.4N 143.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 26.5N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 137.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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