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Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-07-27 16:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 1500 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-07-27 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270843 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 Conventional satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate that Hernan has continued to strengthen. A small central dense overcast has persisted over the center during the past 6 hours, and 0418 UTC and 0510 UTC ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B overpasses indicated surface winds of 48 kt and 51 kt, respectively, were present just east of center. Assuming that the coarse resolution ASCAT data has under-sampled the rather small and tight inner core wind field, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. This intensity is supported by satellite intensity estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and 56 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 310/12 kt. Hernan is being steered along the southwestern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge located across the southwestern and southern United States. This persistent steering pattern is expected to keep Hernan moving in a general northwestward direction for the next 2-3 days, followed by a turn toward the west when the cyclone weakens and is steered primarily the by low-level easterly trade wind flow. Although the models have again shifted slightly northward, the new NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory track and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope due to the expected quicker weakening than what the more northerly track GFS and GFDL models are forecasting. Hernan has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12 hours, which is a faster-than-normal rate of intensification. The cyclone has about another 12 hours or so of favorable conditions that could allow Hernan to achieve hurricane strength. After that, however, increasing westerly vertical wind shear should induce at least some weakening until around 48 hours, at which time more rapid weakening is expected as the the system moves over sub-25C SSTs. By Days 4 and 5, decreasing sea surface temperatures and even stronger shear should cause Hernan to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 16.9N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.1N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.6N 114.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 22.1N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 23.3N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 23.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 23.6N 128.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Graphics
2014-07-27 10:42:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 Jul 2014 08:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 Jul 2014 08:40:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-07-27 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 0900 UTC SUN JUL 27 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 28 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 34 1 18(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-27 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 27 the center of HERNAN was located near 16.9, -110.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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