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Summary for Tropical Storm HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-28 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 the center of HERNAN was located near 21.3, -117.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Public Advisory Number 11
2014-07-28 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 282031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 200 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 ...HERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 117.3W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THEN DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-07-28 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 282031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 2100 UTC MON JUL 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 117.3W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 117.3W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.6N 121.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.2N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Graphics
2014-07-28 17:08:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Jul 2014 14:55:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Jul 2014 15:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-07-28 16:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281437 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014 Persistent 15-20 kt of westerly shear is certainly deteriorating the cyclone's organization this morning. Conventional satellite imagery shows a rather shapeless cloud pattern with warming cloud tops. A fortuitous 0934 UTC AMSU-A microwave pass indicated an eastward vertical tilt with the low-level center located near the western edge of the deep convection. A compromise of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with a 0933 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON (which includes ADT, and AMSU intensity estimates) of 54 kt supports an initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory. The large-scale models and the statistical/dynamical intensity guidance all show a moderate shear environment through the forecast period. Furthermore, an increasingly stable air mass and decreasing sea surface temperatures should ultimately weaken Hernan into a shallow post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. Hernan continues to move northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 295/14 kt. Global model guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should steer Hernan in this general motion through the 36 hour period. Afterward, a turn toward the west and a reduction in forward speed is forecast as the remnant low moves within the lower tropospheric flow of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is again adjusted slightly to the left of the previous track beyond 36 hours, and lies between the consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.5N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 22.9N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 23.8N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 24.0N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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